Clay & Cortex Results so far

ResultsAnonymous · updated 2026-10-28

What the studies have measured, as they measure it

Every study on this site publishes its data as they come in, anonymised, whether or not they say anything flattering. The studies are designed and run by Dr. Satwant Kumar, a physician and vision neuroscientist. This page is regenerated from the study database; the numbers below are the numbers the studies hold. Sessions are labelled S01, S02, … in order of upload, and nothing else about a participant appears.

Study 1Trap occlusion

How early can you call the line?

A clay leaves the trench at a small angle left or right of straightaway, is visible for a fixed few tens of milliseconds, and is then hidden. The observer says left or right. An adaptive procedure finds, at each viewing time, the smallest launch angle the observer calls correctly three times in four. That angle is the threshold; smaller is better. 9 sessions from 9 people are shown: 5 elite or international shooters, 2 club shooters, 1 novice or non-shooter and 1 who did not say, 2026-08-05 to 2026-09-15.

2,862
calibrated trials, 6% rejected for timing
0.09°
smallest launch angle called so far
29 of 37
thresholds measurable; 8 below the task's floor
9
sessions shown, of 11 uploaded, from 9 people

The longer the target is seen, the smaller the angle that can be called

One line per session, coloured by self-reported experience. Both axes are logarithmic. Hover or tap a point for its confidence interval and trial count.

0.05°0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°5°Smallest angle called correctly 75% of the time33 ms50 ms67 ms100 ms141 msVisible flight before occlusion (ms, as presented)below the smallest angle the task presents (≈ 0.1°): not measurableS02 · Elite / international · 33 ms · threshold 0.38° (95% CI 0.18–0.85), 60 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 50 ms · threshold 0.24° (95% CI 0.12–0.45), 60 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 66 ms · threshold 0.09° (95% CI 0.05–0.19), 60 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 100 ms · threshold 0.11° (95% CI 0.05–0.23), 59 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 141 ms · threshold 0.10° (95% CI 0.05–0.20), 59 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 30 ms · threshold 0.21° (95% CI 0.11–0.40), 75 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 49 ms · threshold 0.23° (95% CI 0.11–0.45), 75 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 67 ms · threshold 0.13° (95% CI 0.06–0.23), 75 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 98 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownS06 · Elite / international · 30 ms · threshold 0.55° (95% CI 0.26–1.10), 75 trialsS06 · Elite / international · 49 ms · at the task floor: below 0.12°, the smallest angle shownS06 · Elite / international · 67 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownS06 · Elite / international · 98 ms · threshold 0.16° (95% CI 0.08–0.29), 75 trialsS10 · Elite / international · 34 ms · threshold 0.18° (95% CI 0.09–0.33), 75 trialsS10 · Elite / international · 51 ms · threshold 0.11° (95% CI 0.06–0.21), 74 trialsS10 · Elite / international · 68 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownS10 · Elite / international · 102 ms · at the task floor: below 0.10°, the smallest angle shownS11 · Elite / international · 30 ms · threshold 0.51° (95% CI 0.31–0.85), 100 trialsS11 · Elite / international · 50 ms · threshold 0.17° (95% CI 0.09–0.27), 99 trialsS11 · Elite / international · 70 ms · threshold 0.21° (95% CI 0.13–0.40), 100 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 33 ms · threshold 0.75° (95% CI 0.21–2.06), 30 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 50 ms · threshold 0.55° (95% CI 0.19–1.41), 32 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 66 ms · threshold 0.62° (95% CI 0.19–2.48), 25 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 100 ms · threshold 0.43° (95% CI 0.16–2.33), 33 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 141 ms · threshold 0.31° (95% CI 0.07–0.80), 31 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 30 ms · threshold 0.48° (95% CI 0.26–0.97), 75 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 49 ms · threshold 0.23° (95% CI 0.12–0.45), 75 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 67 ms · threshold 0.14° (95% CI 0.07–0.26), 75 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 98 ms · at the task floor: below 0.12°, the smallest angle shownS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 34 ms · threshold 2.82° (95% CI 1.41–5.63), 74 trialsS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 51 ms · threshold 1.41° (95% CI 0.75–2.64), 73 trialsS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 68 ms · threshold 1.10° (95% CI 0.58–2.06), 70 trialsS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 102 ms · threshold 0.62° (95% CI 0.33–1.24), 72 trialsS07 · Not stated · 30 ms · threshold 0.31° (95% CI 0.17–0.55), 75 trialsS07 · Not stated · 49 ms · threshold 0.19° (95% CI 0.09–0.35), 75 trialsS07 · Not stated · 67 ms · at the task floor: below 0.12°, the smallest angle shownS07 · Not stated · 98 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownGroupElite / internationalClub / developingNovice / non-shooterNot statedhollow: at the floor0.05°0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°5°Threshold (°)33 ms50 ms67 ms100 ms141 msVisible flight before occlusion (ms)S02 · Elite / international · 33 ms · threshold 0.38° (95% CI 0.18–0.85), 60 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 50 ms · threshold 0.24° (95% CI 0.12–0.45), 60 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 66 ms · threshold 0.09° (95% CI 0.05–0.19), 60 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 100 ms · threshold 0.11° (95% CI 0.05–0.23), 59 trialsS02 · Elite / international · 141 ms · threshold 0.10° (95% CI 0.05–0.20), 59 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 30 ms · threshold 0.21° (95% CI 0.11–0.40), 75 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 49 ms · threshold 0.23° (95% CI 0.11–0.45), 75 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 67 ms · threshold 0.13° (95% CI 0.06–0.23), 75 trialsS04 · Elite / international · 98 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownS06 · Elite / international · 30 ms · threshold 0.55° (95% CI 0.26–1.10), 75 trialsS06 · Elite / international · 49 ms · at the task floor: below 0.12°, the smallest angle shownS06 · Elite / international · 67 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownS06 · Elite / international · 98 ms · threshold 0.16° (95% CI 0.08–0.29), 75 trialsS10 · Elite / international · 34 ms · threshold 0.18° (95% CI 0.09–0.33), 75 trialsS10 · Elite / international · 51 ms · threshold 0.11° (95% CI 0.06–0.21), 74 trialsS10 · Elite / international · 68 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownS10 · Elite / international · 102 ms · at the task floor: below 0.10°, the smallest angle shownS11 · Elite / international · 30 ms · threshold 0.51° (95% CI 0.31–0.85), 100 trialsS11 · Elite / international · 50 ms · threshold 0.17° (95% CI 0.09–0.27), 99 trialsS11 · Elite / international · 70 ms · threshold 0.21° (95% CI 0.13–0.40), 100 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 33 ms · threshold 0.75° (95% CI 0.21–2.06), 30 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 50 ms · threshold 0.55° (95% CI 0.19–1.41), 32 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 66 ms · threshold 0.62° (95% CI 0.19–2.48), 25 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 100 ms · threshold 0.43° (95% CI 0.16–2.33), 33 trialsS01 · Club / developing · 141 ms · threshold 0.31° (95% CI 0.07–0.80), 31 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 30 ms · threshold 0.48° (95% CI 0.26–0.97), 75 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 49 ms · threshold 0.23° (95% CI 0.12–0.45), 75 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 67 ms · threshold 0.14° (95% CI 0.07–0.26), 75 trialsS05 · Club / developing · 98 ms · at the task floor: below 0.12°, the smallest angle shownS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 34 ms · threshold 2.82° (95% CI 1.41–5.63), 74 trialsS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 51 ms · threshold 1.41° (95% CI 0.75–2.64), 73 trialsS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 68 ms · threshold 1.10° (95% CI 0.58–2.06), 70 trialsS03 · Novice / non-shooter · 102 ms · threshold 0.62° (95% CI 0.33–1.24), 72 trialsS07 · Not stated · 30 ms · threshold 0.31° (95% CI 0.17–0.55), 75 trialsS07 · Not stated · 49 ms · threshold 0.19° (95% CI 0.09–0.35), 75 trialsS07 · Not stated · 67 ms · at the task floor: below 0.12°, the smallest angle shownS07 · Not stated · 98 ms · at the task floor: below 0.11°, the smallest angle shownElite / internationalClub / developingNovice / non-shooterNot statedhollow: at the floor
Every session falls with viewing time, as it should if the task measures what it claims to: more visible flight is more information about the line. Hollow points sit at the floor of what the task can present (about 0.1°), so those true values are lower still.

Experience shows in the numbers

The same thresholds grouped by experience at each viewing time. One dot per session; the bar is the group median of the measurable thresholds.

0.05°0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°5°Threshold (°)33 msElite / international · 33 ms · 0.18°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.21°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.38°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.51°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.55°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 33 ms: 0.38° (n = 5)Club / developing · 33 ms · 0.48°Club / developing · 33 ms · 0.75°Club / developing median of usable thresholds at 33 ms: 0.60° (n = 2)Novice / non-shooter · 33 ms · 2.82°Not stated · 33 ms · 0.31°50 msElite / international · 50 ms · 0.11°Elite / international · 50 ms · below 0.12° (task floor)Elite / international · 50 ms · 0.17°Elite / international · 50 ms · 0.23°Elite / international · 50 ms · 0.24°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 50 ms: 0.19° (n = 4)Club / developing · 50 ms · 0.23°Club / developing · 50 ms · 0.55°Club / developing median of usable thresholds at 50 ms: 0.35° (n = 2)Novice / non-shooter · 50 ms · 1.41°Not stated · 50 ms · 0.19°67 msElite / international · 67 ms · 0.09°Elite / international · 67 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Elite / international · 67 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Elite / international · 67 ms · 0.13°Elite / international · 67 ms · 0.21°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 67 ms: 0.13° (n = 3)Club / developing · 67 ms · 0.14°Club / developing · 67 ms · 0.62°Club / developing median of usable thresholds at 67 ms: 0.29° (n = 2)Novice / non-shooter · 67 ms · 1.10°Not stated · 67 ms · below 0.12° (task floor)100 msElite / international · 100 ms · below 0.10° (task floor)Elite / international · 100 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Elite / international · 100 ms · 0.11°Elite / international · 100 ms · 0.16°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 100 ms: 0.13° (n = 2)Club / developing · 100 ms · below 0.12° (task floor)Club / developing · 100 ms · 0.43°Novice / non-shooter · 100 ms · 0.62°Not stated · 100 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Viewing time (nominal). Within each: elite · club · novice · not stated. Bar = median of usable thresholds.0.05°0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°5°Threshold (°)33 msElite / international · 33 ms · 0.18°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.21°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.38°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.51°Elite / international · 33 ms · 0.55°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 33 ms: 0.38° (n = 5)Club / developing · 33 ms · 0.48°Club / developing · 33 ms · 0.75°Club / developing median of usable thresholds at 33 ms: 0.60° (n = 2)Novice / non-shooter · 33 ms · 2.82°Not stated · 33 ms · 0.31°50 msElite / international · 50 ms · 0.11°Elite / international · 50 ms · below 0.12° (task floor)Elite / international · 50 ms · 0.17°Elite / international · 50 ms · 0.23°Elite / international · 50 ms · 0.24°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 50 ms: 0.19° (n = 4)Club / developing · 50 ms · 0.23°Club / developing · 50 ms · 0.55°Club / developing median of usable thresholds at 50 ms: 0.35° (n = 2)Novice / non-shooter · 50 ms · 1.41°Not stated · 50 ms · 0.19°67 msElite / international · 67 ms · 0.09°Elite / international · 67 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Elite / international · 67 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Elite / international · 67 ms · 0.13°Elite / international · 67 ms · 0.21°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 67 ms: 0.13° (n = 3)Club / developing · 67 ms · 0.14°Club / developing · 67 ms · 0.62°Club / developing median of usable thresholds at 67 ms: 0.29° (n = 2)Novice / non-shooter · 67 ms · 1.10°Not stated · 67 ms · below 0.12° (task floor)100 msElite / international · 100 ms · below 0.10° (task floor)Elite / international · 100 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Elite / international · 100 ms · 0.11°Elite / international · 100 ms · 0.16°Elite / international median of usable thresholds at 100 ms: 0.13° (n = 2)Club / developing · 100 ms · below 0.12° (task floor)Club / developing · 100 ms · 0.43°Novice / non-shooter · 100 ms · 0.62°Not stated · 100 ms · below 0.11° (task floor)Viewing time. Bar = group median.Elite / internationalClub / developingNovice / non-shooterNot statedhollow: at the floor
Group is self-reported at sign-in. For the sessions run in person the investigator has confirmed the labels. With this few people the medians are indicative, not a finding; the study's stated gate for any claim about groups is a larger sample and a repeat session per person.

Medians by group and viewing time

Threshold in degrees of launch angle, with the sideways drift it amounts to at the distance where the target disappears. A clay is 11 cm across.

Visible forDistance at occlusionElite / internationalClub / developingNovice / non-shooterNot stated
33 ms17 m0.38° ≈ 11 cm
n = 5
0.60° ≈ 18 cm
n = 2
——
50 ms17 m0.19° ≈ 6 cm
n = 4 (+1 at floor)
0.35° ≈ 11 cm
n = 2
——
67 ms18 m0.13° ≈ 4 cm
n = 3 (+2 at floor)
0.29° ≈ 9 cm
n = 2
——
100 ms19 m0.13° ≈ 4 cm
n = 2 (+2 at floor)
———

What the numbers mean on the range

Take the 50 ms condition. When the target disappears it is about 17 m from the shooter, and the median threshold of 0.23° is a sideways drift of about 7 cm from the straightaway line, less than one clay width (11 cm). That is what "calling the line" resolves to: a drift of a few centimetres, at that distance, in 50 ms.

What one session looks like underneath: S04, elite / international

The psychometric function behind each threshold at 33 ms, 50 ms, 67 ms: the proportion of correct calls against launch angle, the maximum-likelihood fit, and where it crosses the 75% criterion.

50%75%100%0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°33 ms visiblechance0.21°0.18°: 58% correct of 19 trials (95% interval 36%–77%)0.25°: 80% correct of 45 trials (95% interval 66%–89%)0.33°: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.53°: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.77°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)1.14°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)1.67°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)2.86°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°50 ms visiblechance0.23°0.24°: 74% correct of 39 trials (95% interval 59%–85%)0.32°: 81% correct of 16 trials (95% interval 57%–93%)0.43°: 89% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 56%–98%)0.61°: 75% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 30%–95%)0.95°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)1.09°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)1.60°: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)2.61°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°67 ms visiblechance0.13°0.15°: 79% correct of 29 trials (95% interval 62%–90%)0.23°: 84% correct of 19 trials (95% interval 62%–94%)0.31°: 80% correct of 15 trials (95% interval 55%–93%)0.44°: 100% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 57%–100%)0.68°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)1.03°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)1.47°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)2.63°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)Launch angle from straightaway (°, log scale). Point area ∝ trials; whiskers 95% intervals; dashed line = 75% criterion.50%75%100%0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°33 ms visiblechance0.21°0.18°: 58% correct of 19 trials (95% interval 36%–77%)0.25°: 80% correct of 45 trials (95% interval 66%–89%)0.33°: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.53°: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.77°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)1.14°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)1.67°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)2.86°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)50%75%100%0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°50 ms visiblechance0.23°0.24°: 74% correct of 39 trials (95% interval 59%–85%)0.32°: 81% correct of 16 trials (95% interval 57%–93%)0.43°: 89% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 56%–98%)0.61°: 75% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 30%–95%)0.95°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)1.09°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)1.60°: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)2.61°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)50%75%100%0.1°0.2°0.5°1°2°67 ms visiblechance0.13°0.15°: 79% correct of 29 trials (95% interval 62%–90%)0.23°: 84% correct of 19 trials (95% interval 62%–94%)0.31°: 80% correct of 15 trials (95% interval 55%–93%)0.44°: 100% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 57%–100%)0.68°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)1.03°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)1.47°: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)2.63°: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)Launch angle (°). Dashed line: 75% criterion.
The adaptive procedure places most trials where the answer is least certain, which is why the large points cluster around the threshold and the far ends are sparse. Whiskers are 95% intervals on each bin. A dashed curve means the fit landed below the smallest angle shown and is reported as "at the floor".

Why the measurement can be trusted, and where it cannot yet

  • The screen is calibrated, not assumed. Scale from a standard plastic card (driving-licence size), viewing distance by the blind-spot method, refresh rate measured before the first trial. Every angle is in degrees at the eye.
  • Every stimulus is a whole number of frames, and a trial in which a frame arrived late is rejected rather than analysed with the wrong duration: 172 of 2,862 main trials so far (6%). One session (S01) lost 155 of its 318 trials to frames delivered late by a display running slower than it had measured; those trials are excluded and its thresholds rest on the rest, which is why its intervals are wide. The study now stops a session early when that starts to happen.
  • Attention is checked. Easy probe trials are interleaved throughout; a lapse there means the observer was not looking. Across every session shown, 0 of 162 probes were missed.
  • A number the task cannot measure is not reported as a number. When the fit lands below the smallest angle presented, the result is "below that angle", shown hollow. 8 of 37 fitted thresholds are in that state; they are the best shooters at the longer viewing times.
  • A display that cannot present the durations is refused. 2 sessions ran on a display that measured 30 Hz, below the 60 Hz the durations need: there the 50 ms condition was presented as 67 ms, so two conditions collapsed into one. They are left out of everything on this page, and the study now refuses such a display before the first trial.
  • What this is not. A handful of people, self-reported experience, one session each, and no peer review. It is an interim look at a running study, not a finding, and nothing here is a claim that any training or equipment improves anything.

What the first sessions changed

The study runs on a stated protocol and the protocol is versioned. The sessions above led to protocol 4.0.0: the 100 ms viewing time was dropped, because for experienced shooters it mostly sat below the task's floor and taught nothing; the three remaining durations are exact multiples of a 60 Hz frame; a display under 60 Hz is now refused outright rather than warned about; and a session that starts losing trials to late frames is stopped early rather than run to the end. Session length is unchanged.

Add your session About the studies

Study 2Lens tint and clay contrast

Does the model predict which lens helps whose eyes?

Each observer's contrast sensitivity is measured on three cone-contrast axes and on a clay-sized moving disc; then, for six lens classes presented blind as faint moving discs, the study finds the fraction of each lens's real clay–background contrast at which the observer can just tell the direction of motion. The physical model predicts that fraction from the observer's own thresholds, and the comparison is the point of the study. 2 sessions under the current protocol from 4 participants, and 1 earlier session shown but not pooled.

Across the 2 pooled sessions, the measured multiplier was on median 2.4× the model's prediction from the observer's own thresholds, and the model ordered the lenses with a rank agreement of τ = +0.13 against the study's gate of 0.6. The model is being tested on its absolute scale as well as its order, and a moving clay-sized target is harder than the model's static thresholds imply; with this little data that is a first reading, not a verdict.

3
sessions shown, 2 under the current protocol
4
participants
1,700
main trials, 2% rejected for timing
+0.13
mean rank agreement τ, current protocol (gate ≥ 0.6)

Lenses: what the eyes measured against what the model predicted

For each lens class, the multiplier of the lens's real clay–background contrast at which the observer could just tell the direction of motion (circle), and the model's prediction from that observer's own thresholds (gold diamond). Lower is better; the grey bar between the two is the model's error, and ×n is the ratio.

0.020.050.10.20.51Threshold multiplier (log; lower is better)1 = the lens's full clay–background contrastclearS01 · Clay shooter · No tint (clear) · measured 0.21 (95% CI 0.0804–0.576), 32 trials; preference 4/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · No tint (clear) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.174S02 · Clay shooter · No tint (clear) · measured 0.163 (95% CI 0.0984–0.284), 40 trials; preference 5/7S02 · No tint (clear) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0542S03 · Clay shooter · No tint (clear) · measured 0.14 (95% CI 0.0727–0.299), 40 trials; preference 7/7S03 · No tint (clear) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.126×1.1×3.0yellowS01 · Clay shooter · Yellow (cut below ~480 nm) · measured 0.236 (95% CI 0.0947–0.795), 32 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Yellow (cut below ~480 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.187light orangeS01 · Clay shooter · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · measured 0.205 (95% CI 0.0779–0.767), 32 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.258S02 · Clay shooter · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · measured 0.264 (95% CI 0.129–0.693), 40 trials; preference 4/7S02 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0511S03 · Clay shooter · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · measured 0.136 (95% CI 0.0636–0.251), 39 trials; preference 7/7S03 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.118×1.1×5.2orangeS01 · Clay shooter · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · measured 0.247 (95% CI 0.0853–0.752), 32 trials; preference 2/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.203S02 · Clay shooter · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · measured 0.182 (95% CI 0.0944–0.352), 40 trials; preference 1/7S02 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0474S03 · Clay shooter · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · measured 0.165 (95% CI 0.0853–0.318), 38 trials; preference 6/7S03 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.11×1.5×3.8vermilionS01 · Clay shooter · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · measured 0.0771 (95% CI 0.0272–0.189), 31 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0686S02 · Clay shooter · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · measured 0.0734 (95% CI 0.0404–0.155), 40 trials; preference 2/7S02 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0475S03 · Clay shooter · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · measured 0.592 (95% CI 0.31–1.45), 39 trials; preference 6/7S03 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.11×5.4×1.5purpleS01 · Clay shooter · Purple / background neutraliser · measured 0.139 (95% CI 0.0473–0.37), 32 trials; preference 2/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted from own thresholds: 0.151S02 · Clay shooter · Purple / background neutraliser · measured 0.0999 (95% CI 0.0519–0.175), 40 trials; preference 3/7S02 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0294S03 · Clay shooter · Purple / background neutraliser · measured 0.126 (95% CI 0.0656–0.221), 40 trials; preference 7/7S03 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0682×1.9×3.4bronzeS01 · Clay shooter · Bronze / copper · measured 0.232 (95% CI 0.0845–0.74), 32 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Bronze / copper · predicted from own thresholds: 0.226S02 · Clay shooter · Bronze / copper · measured 0.163 (95% CI 0.0889–0.347), 40 trials; preference 3/7S02 · Bronze / copper · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0502S03 · Clay shooter · Bronze / copper · measured 0.147 (95% CI 0.0889–0.284), 39 trials; preference 7/7S03 · Bronze / copper · predicted from own thresholds: 0.116×1.3×3.2measured · Clay shooterpredicted from the observer's own thresholds×nmeasured ÷ predictedfaded: protocol 0.1.0, shown, not pooledLens class. The gap between a circle and its diamond is the model's error for that observer and lens; ×n is the ratio.0.020.050.10.20.51Threshold multiplier1 = full contrastclearS01 · Clay shooter · No tint (clear) · measured 0.21 (95% CI 0.0804–0.576), 32 trials; preference 4/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · No tint (clear) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.174S02 · Clay shooter · No tint (clear) · measured 0.163 (95% CI 0.0984–0.284), 40 trials; preference 5/7S02 · No tint (clear) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0542S03 · Clay shooter · No tint (clear) · measured 0.14 (95% CI 0.0727–0.299), 40 trials; preference 7/7S03 · No tint (clear) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.126yellowS01 · Clay shooter · Yellow (cut below ~480 nm) · measured 0.236 (95% CI 0.0947–0.795), 32 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Yellow (cut below ~480 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.187light orangeS01 · Clay shooter · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · measured 0.205 (95% CI 0.0779–0.767), 32 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.258S02 · Clay shooter · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · measured 0.264 (95% CI 0.129–0.693), 40 trials; preference 4/7S02 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0511S03 · Clay shooter · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · measured 0.136 (95% CI 0.0636–0.251), 39 trials; preference 7/7S03 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.118orangeS01 · Clay shooter · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · measured 0.247 (95% CI 0.0853–0.752), 32 trials; preference 2/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.203S02 · Clay shooter · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · measured 0.182 (95% CI 0.0944–0.352), 40 trials; preference 1/7S02 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0474S03 · Clay shooter · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · measured 0.165 (95% CI 0.0853–0.318), 38 trials; preference 6/7S03 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.11vermilionS01 · Clay shooter · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · measured 0.0771 (95% CI 0.0272–0.189), 31 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0686S02 · Clay shooter · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · measured 0.0734 (95% CI 0.0404–0.155), 40 trials; preference 2/7S02 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0475S03 · Clay shooter · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · measured 0.592 (95% CI 0.31–1.45), 39 trials; preference 6/7S03 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted from own thresholds: 0.11purpleS01 · Clay shooter · Purple / background neutraliser · measured 0.139 (95% CI 0.0473–0.37), 32 trials; preference 2/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted from own thresholds: 0.151S02 · Clay shooter · Purple / background neutraliser · measured 0.0999 (95% CI 0.0519–0.175), 40 trials; preference 3/7S02 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0294S03 · Clay shooter · Purple / background neutraliser · measured 0.126 (95% CI 0.0656–0.221), 40 trials; preference 7/7S03 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0682bronzeS01 · Clay shooter · Bronze / copper · measured 0.232 (95% CI 0.0845–0.74), 32 trials; preference 3/7 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Bronze / copper · predicted from own thresholds: 0.226S02 · Clay shooter · Bronze / copper · measured 0.163 (95% CI 0.0889–0.347), 40 trials; preference 3/7S02 · Bronze / copper · predicted from own thresholds: 0.0502S03 · Clay shooter · Bronze / copper · measured 0.147 (95% CI 0.0889–0.284), 39 trials; preference 7/7S03 · Bronze / copper · predicted from own thresholds: 0.116measured · Clay shooterpredicted from the observer's own thresholdsfaded: protocol 0.1.0, shown, not pooled
Every lens condition is a faint grey-field disc carrying that lens's cone-contrast vector, so the observer cannot tell which lens a trial belongs to and expectation cannot enter. Faded marks are a session under protocol 0.1.0, shown but not pooled.

Predicted against measured, with each session's rank agreement

Every usable lens condition, on equal axes. On the diagonal the model was exactly right; above it, the eye found the lens harder than the model predicted. Kendall's τ per session: +1 means the model ordered the lenses exactly as the observer's eyes did, 0 means no relation.

0.020.020.050.050.10.10.20.20.50.511above the line: harder than the model predictedbelow: easier than predictedPredicted threshold multiplier (log)Measured threshold multiplier (log)S01 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted 0.0686, measured 0.0771 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · No tint (clear) · predicted 0.174, measured 0.21 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Yellow (cut below ~480 nm) · predicted 0.187, measured 0.236 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted 0.151, measured 0.139 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted 0.203, measured 0.247 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Bronze / copper · predicted 0.226, measured 0.232 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted 0.258, measured 0.205 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS02 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted 0.0475, measured 0.0734S02 · No tint (clear) · predicted 0.0542, measured 0.163S02 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted 0.0294, measured 0.0999S02 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted 0.0474, measured 0.182S02 · Bronze / copper · predicted 0.0502, measured 0.163S02 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted 0.0511, measured 0.264S03 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted 0.11, measured 0.592S03 · No tint (clear) · predicted 0.126, measured 0.14S03 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted 0.0682, measured 0.126S03 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted 0.11, measured 0.165S03 · Bronze / copper · predicted 0.116, measured 0.147S03 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted 0.118, measured 0.136vermilionlight orangeorangeorangeclearbronzebronzeclearlight orangepurplepurplevermilionRank agreement, Kendall's tauS01 · τ = +0.43protocol 0.1.0, shown, not pooledS02 · τ = +0.33S03 · τ = -0.07+1: the model ordered the lensesexactly as the observer's eyes did;0: no relation.Gate for a personal recommendation:mean τ ≥ 0.6 over pooled sessions.Labels name the lens class forpooled sessions; hover any point.0.020.020.050.050.10.10.20.20.50.511above the line: harder than the model predictedbelow: easier than predictedPredicted threshold multiplier (log)Measured threshold multiplier (log)S01 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted 0.0686, measured 0.0771 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · No tint (clear) · predicted 0.174, measured 0.21 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Yellow (cut below ~480 nm) · predicted 0.187, measured 0.236 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted 0.151, measured 0.139 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted 0.203, measured 0.247 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Bronze / copper · predicted 0.226, measured 0.232 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS01 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted 0.258, measured 0.205 · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS02 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted 0.0475, measured 0.0734S02 · No tint (clear) · predicted 0.0542, measured 0.163S02 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted 0.0294, measured 0.0999S02 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted 0.0474, measured 0.182S02 · Bronze / copper · predicted 0.0502, measured 0.163S02 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted 0.0511, measured 0.264S03 · Vermilion (cut ~580 nm) · predicted 0.11, measured 0.592S03 · No tint (clear) · predicted 0.126, measured 0.14S03 · Purple / background neutraliser · predicted 0.0682, measured 0.126S03 · Orange (cut ~550 nm) · predicted 0.11, measured 0.165S03 · Bronze / copper · predicted 0.116, measured 0.147S03 · Light orange (cut ~520 nm) · predicted 0.118, measured 0.136vermilionlight orangeorangeorangeclearbronzebronzeclearlight orangepurplepurplevermilionτ per session: S01 +0.43 (0.1.0, not pooled); S02 +0.33; S03 -0.07diagonal: prediction equals measurement · gate: mean τ ≥ 0.6labels: lens class, pooled sessions · faded: protocol 0.1.0
The study's stated gate for a personal lens recommendation is a mean τ of at least 0.6 across observers, against at most 0.3 for a prediction that ignores the observer. Until then the recommender stays a physics estimate.

The red–green threshold is only a colour threshold when the flicker match before it found a minimum: it defines the axis the discs are shown on. In 1 pooled session the match ran to the edge of its adjustable range instead of settling, so that session used the standard observer's axis and its red–green threshold is shown but not pooled. The instrument now requires two settings that found a minimum and agree, and falls back to the standard axis when they do not; earlier records are re-scored by the same rule.

Every observer's sensitivity profile

Threshold contrast on the four measures, one dot per session; lower is more sensitive. The red bands are the study's screening bounds: a threshold above one is flagged to the observer, never diagnosed. Bars are medians of pooled thresholds once there are two or more.

0.0050.010.020.050.10.2Threshold contrast (log; lower is more sensitive)screening bound 0.05: a threshold above it is flaggedflag above 0.05Luminance, 1° discS02 · Clay shooter · Luminance, 1° disc · 0.0219 (95% CI 0.0107–0.0448), 35 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Luminance, 1° disc · 0.064 (95% CI 0.0313–0.166), 34 trialsmedian of 2 usable thresholds: 0.0375screening bound 0.03: a threshold above it is flaggedflag above 0.03Red–green (L−M)S02 · Clay shooter · Red–green (L−M) · 0.00665 (95% CI 0.00375–0.0123), 36 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Red–green (L−M) · 0.0154 (95% CI 0.00797–0.0298), 36 trials · the flicker null was not established, so this is not pooledscreening bound 0.25: a threshold above it is flaggedflag above 0.25Blue–yellow (S)S02 · Clay shooter · Blue–yellow (S) · 0.0742 (95% CI 0.0356–0.155), 35 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Blue–yellow (S) · 0.11 (95% CI 0.0526–0.218), 35 trialsmedian of 2 usable thresholds: 0.0903Luminanceclay-sized moving discS01 · Clay shooter · Luminance, clay-sized moving disc · 0.0583 (95% CI 0.0221–0.243), 36 trials · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS02 · Clay shooter · Luminance, clay-sized moving disc · 0.0776 (95% CI 0.0414–0.154), 48 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Luminance, clay-sized moving disc · 0.183 (95% CI 0.0975–0.343), 43 trialsmedian of 2 usable thresholds: 0.119measured · Clay shooterfaded: protocol 0.1.0, shown, not pooledscreening bound: a flag to see an optometrist above it, never a diagnosis0.0050.010.020.050.10.2Threshold contrastscreening bound 0.05: a threshold above it is flagged0.05luminance 1°S02 · Clay shooter · Luminance, 1° disc · 0.0219 (95% CI 0.0107–0.0448), 35 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Luminance, 1° disc · 0.064 (95% CI 0.0313–0.166), 34 trialsmedian of 2 usable thresholds: 0.0375screening bound 0.03: a threshold above it is flagged0.03red–greenS02 · Clay shooter · Red–green (L−M) · 0.00665 (95% CI 0.00375–0.0123), 36 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Red–green (L−M) · 0.0154 (95% CI 0.00797–0.0298), 36 trials · the flicker null was not established, so this is not pooledscreening bound 0.25: a threshold above it is flagged0.25blue–yellowS02 · Clay shooter · Blue–yellow (S) · 0.0742 (95% CI 0.0356–0.155), 35 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Blue–yellow (S) · 0.11 (95% CI 0.0526–0.218), 35 trialsmedian of 2 usable thresholds: 0.0903clay-sizedS01 · Clay shooter · Luminance, clay-sized moving disc · 0.0583 (95% CI 0.0221–0.243), 36 trials · protocol 0.1.0, not pooledS02 · Clay shooter · Luminance, clay-sized moving disc · 0.0776 (95% CI 0.0414–0.154), 48 trialsS03 · Clay shooter · Luminance, clay-sized moving disc · 0.183 (95% CI 0.0975–0.343), 43 trialsmedian of 2 usable thresholds: 0.119measured · Clay shooterfaded: protocol 0.1.0, shown, not pooledscreening bound: flagged above, never diagnosed
A threshold above the screening bound is reported to the observer as a flag to see an optometrist, never as a diagnosis: the display's colour is assumed, not measured.

What one session looks like underneath: S02, clay shooter

The psychometric function behind each threshold: proportion correct against contrast or multiplier, the maximum-likelihood fit, and where it crosses the criterion.

25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Luminance, 1° discchancethreshold 0.02190.0189: 14% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 3%–51%)0.0212: 71% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 36%–92%)0.0237: 64% correct of 11 trials (95% interval 35%–85%)0.0262: 80% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 38%–96%)0.0284: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0363: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.0434: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Red–green (L−M)chancethreshold 0.006650.00379: 0% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 0%–66%)0.00481: 50% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 15%–85%)0.00567: 40% correct of 10 trials (95% interval 17%–69%)0.00689: 73% correct of 15 trials (95% interval 48%–89%)0.00793: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0104: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.0162: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Blue–yellow (S)chancethreshold 0.07420.0374: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.0573: 33% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 6%–79%)0.0663: 50% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 15%–85%)0.0758: 57% correct of 14 trials (95% interval 33%–79%)0.0882: 78% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 45%–94%)0.0987: 100% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 51%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Luminance, clay-sized moving discchancethreshold 0.07760.0347: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.0437: 40% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 12%–77%)0.0525: 50% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 19%–81%)0.0617: 60% correct of 10 trials (95% interval 31%–83%)0.0708: 50% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 25%–75%)0.0842: 75% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 47%–91%)0.0962: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.127: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Vermilion (cut ~580 nm)chancethreshold 0.07340.0379: 0% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 0%–49%)0.0465: 60% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 23%–88%)0.0565: 67% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 35%–88%)0.0685: 36% correct of 11 trials (95% interval 15%–65%)0.0811: 89% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 56%–98%)0.112: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.162: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5No tint (clear)chancethreshold 0.1630.121: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.136: 0% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 0%–56%)0.154: 33% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 14%–61%)0.165: 79% correct of 14 trials (95% interval 52%–92%)0.181: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)0.2: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.218: 100% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 51%–100%)0.25: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Purple / background neutraliserchancethreshold 0.09990.0655: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.0777: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.095: 50% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 15%–85%)0.106: 57% correct of 14 trials (95% interval 33%–79%)0.123: 83% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 44%–97%)0.135: 70% correct of 10 trials (95% interval 40%–89%)0.158: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.192: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Orange (cut ~550 nm)chancethreshold 0.1820.156: 0% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 0%–56%)0.177: 80% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 38%–96%)0.187: 50% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 19%–81%)0.205: 44% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 19%–73%)0.222: 71% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 36%–92%)0.249: 100% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 61%–100%)0.27: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)0.304: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Bronze / copperchancethreshold 0.1630.0784: 0% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 0%–66%)0.0983: 43% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 16%–75%)0.114: 43% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 16%–75%)0.135: 62% correct of 8 trials (95% interval 31%–86%)0.158: 40% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 12%–77%)0.179: 75% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 30%–95%)0.212: 100% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 61%–100%)0.263: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Light orange (cut ~520 nm)chancethreshold 0.2640.0605: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.088: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.112: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.139: 50% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 9%–91%)0.176: 14% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 3%–51%)0.214: 62% correct of 16 trials (95% interval 39%–82%)0.259: 75% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 47%–91%)Contrast or multiplier (log scale). Point area ∝ trials; whiskers 95% intervals; dashed line = criterion.25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Luminance, 1° discchancethreshold 0.02190.0189: 14% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 3%–51%)0.0212: 71% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 36%–92%)0.0237: 64% correct of 11 trials (95% interval 35%–85%)0.0262: 80% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 38%–96%)0.0284: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0363: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.0434: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Red–green (L−M)chancethreshold 0.006650.00379: 0% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 0%–66%)0.00481: 50% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 15%–85%)0.00567: 40% correct of 10 trials (95% interval 17%–69%)0.00689: 73% correct of 15 trials (95% interval 48%–89%)0.00793: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.0104: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.0162: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Blue–yellow (S)chancethreshold 0.07420.0374: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.0573: 33% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 6%–79%)0.0663: 50% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 15%–85%)0.0758: 57% correct of 14 trials (95% interval 33%–79%)0.0882: 78% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 45%–94%)0.0987: 100% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 51%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Luminance, clay-sized moving discchancethreshold 0.07760.0347: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.0437: 40% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 12%–77%)0.0525: 50% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 19%–81%)0.0617: 60% correct of 10 trials (95% interval 31%–83%)0.0708: 50% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 25%–75%)0.0842: 75% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 47%–91%)0.0962: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.127: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Vermilion (cut ~580 nm)chancethreshold 0.07340.0379: 0% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 0%–49%)0.0465: 60% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 23%–88%)0.0565: 67% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 35%–88%)0.0685: 36% correct of 11 trials (95% interval 15%–65%)0.0811: 89% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 56%–98%)0.112: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.162: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5No tint (clear)chancethreshold 0.1630.121: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.136: 0% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 0%–56%)0.154: 33% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 14%–61%)0.165: 79% correct of 14 trials (95% interval 52%–92%)0.181: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)0.2: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.218: 100% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 51%–100%)0.25: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Purple / background neutraliserchancethreshold 0.09990.0655: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.0777: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.095: 50% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 15%–85%)0.106: 57% correct of 14 trials (95% interval 33%–79%)0.123: 83% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 44%–97%)0.135: 70% correct of 10 trials (95% interval 40%–89%)0.158: 100% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 44%–100%)0.192: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Orange (cut ~550 nm)chancethreshold 0.1820.156: 0% correct of 3 trials (95% interval 0%–56%)0.177: 80% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 38%–96%)0.187: 50% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 19%–81%)0.205: 44% correct of 9 trials (95% interval 19%–73%)0.222: 71% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 36%–92%)0.249: 100% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 61%–100%)0.27: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)0.304: 100% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 34%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Bronze / copperchancethreshold 0.1630.0784: 0% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 0%–66%)0.0983: 43% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 16%–75%)0.114: 43% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 16%–75%)0.135: 62% correct of 8 trials (95% interval 31%–86%)0.158: 40% correct of 5 trials (95% interval 12%–77%)0.179: 75% correct of 4 trials (95% interval 30%–95%)0.212: 100% correct of 6 trials (95% interval 61%–100%)0.263: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)25%62%100%0.0050.010.020.050.10.20.5Light orange (cut ~520 nm)chancethreshold 0.2640.0605: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.088: 100% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 21%–100%)0.112: 0% correct of 1 trials (95% interval 0%–79%)0.139: 50% correct of 2 trials (95% interval 9%–91%)0.176: 14% correct of 7 trials (95% interval 3%–51%)0.214: 62% correct of 16 trials (95% interval 39%–82%)0.259: 75% correct of 12 trials (95% interval 47%–91%)Contrast or multiplier (log). Dashed line: criterion.
Point area scales with the trials in each bin; whiskers are 95% intervals. The adaptive procedure puts most trials near the threshold, so the ends of each curve are sparse by design.

Run the study Method and references

Study 3Eye dominance

Which eye sights, and is it always the same one?

The profiler is a five-minute sighting-dominance test, run without an account: which eye keeps a target framed in an aperture made with both hands, across five positions on the screen, with either hand in front, at arm's length and near the face. Contributing the record is optional, anonymous when signed out and linked to the account by an internal id when signed in. The study asks how often sighting dominance is cross to the gun shoulder, how often it switches with gaze direction, and how often people's belief about their dominant eye is right.

49
contributions, 2026-09-12 to 2026-10-12
59%
right-eye sighting dominance; 22% left, 16% mixed
13%
cross-dominant among the 38 who named a gun shoulder
2%
switched eye with gaze direction

Sighting dominance, overall and by gun shoulder

Each bar is everyone in that group; the segments are the share whose sighting eye was the right, the left, or neither consistently (mixed). Undetermined means fewer than six of the thirteen trials gave a clear answer.

Everyone (n = 49)right eye: 29 of 4929left eye: 11 of 4911mixed: 8 of 498undetermined: 1 of 49Gun on right shoulder (n = 40)right eye: 27 of 4027left eye: 5 of 405mixed: 7 of 407undetermined: 1 of 40Gun on left shoulder (n = 7)left eye: 6 of 76mixed: 1 of 71Not a shooter (n = 2)right eye: 2 of 22right eyeleft eyemixedundeterminedEveryone (n = 49)right eye: 29 of 4929left eye: 11 of 4911mixed: 8 of 498undetermined: 1 of 49Gun on right shoulder (n = 40)right eye: 27 of 4027left eye: 5 of 405mixed: 7 of 407undetermined: 1 of 40Gun on left shoulder (n = 7)left eye: 6 of 76mixed: 1 of 71Not a shooter (n = 2)right eye: 2 of 22right eyeleft eyemixedundetermined
A person counts as right- or left-eye dominant when that eye kept the target on at least three trials in four; cross-dominant means the sighting eye is on the other side from the gun shoulder.

Of the 37 people who thought they knew their dominant eye before the test, 100% were right.

Run the five-minute test What it measures

Study 4Lead perception

How much lead do shooters see, against the physics?

A crossing clay has to be shot at where it will be when the pellets arrive; how much lead that is, is arithmetic, and how much of it a shooter sees as right is a judgement nobody measures. The test shows a clay crossing at a known angular speed and has the observer set a ring where they would point the gun at the instant of firing, with no feedback; the setting against the shot's time of flight (a clay at 30 m, 0.095 s of flight) is the perceived lead, its error the bias, its spread the precision, by speed, direction and geometry. The study asks whether perceived lead differs by method, discipline and experience, and later whether it predicts anything on the ground.

6
contributions, 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-19
-6%
median bias against the physics (interquartile -16% to -4%)
33%
see less lead than the shot needs; 50% about right, 17% more
0%
saw relatively less lead on the fast targets

Perceived lead against the physics, by target speed

One point per person and speed: the lead they set divided by the lead the shot needed. Above the dashed line is more lead than the physics, below is less.

0.5×1.0×1.5×2.0×2.5×set lead ÷ required20°/sS01 · 20°/s · 0.85× the required leadS03 · 20°/s · 1.49× the required leadS04 · 20°/s · 0.79× the required leadS05 · 20°/s · 0.81× the required leadS06 · 20°/s · 0.69× the required lead35°/sS01 · 35°/s · 0.92× the required leadS02 · 35°/s · 0.74× the required leadS03 · 35°/s · 2.25× the required leadS04 · 35°/s · 1.01× the required leadS05 · 35°/s · 0.89× the required leadS06 · 35°/s · 0.95× the required lead50°/sS01 · 50°/s · 0.97× the required leadS03 · 50°/s · 2.35× the required leadS04 · 50°/s · 1.05× the required leadS05 · 50°/s · 0.77× the required leadS06 · 50°/s · 1.39× the required leadTarget speed across the eye. Bar = median; dashed line = the physics.0.5×1.0×1.5×2.0×2.5×set lead ÷ required20°/sS01 · 20°/s · 0.85× the required leadS03 · 20°/s · 1.49× the required leadS04 · 20°/s · 0.79× the required leadS05 · 20°/s · 0.81× the required leadS06 · 20°/s · 0.69× the required lead35°/sS01 · 35°/s · 0.92× the required leadS02 · 35°/s · 0.74× the required leadS03 · 35°/s · 2.25× the required leadS04 · 35°/s · 1.01× the required leadS05 · 35°/s · 0.89× the required leadS06 · 35°/s · 0.95× the required lead50°/sS01 · 50°/s · 0.97× the required leadS03 · 50°/s · 2.35× the required leadS04 · 50°/s · 1.05× the required leadS05 · 50°/s · 0.77× the required leadS06 · 50°/s · 1.39× the required leadTarget speed across the eye. Bar = median; dashed line = the physics.
A person counts as seeing less or more lead than the shot needs when their mean setting is more than 15% below or above it; precision is the spread of repeated settings within a condition.

Median bias by how people say they shoot a crosser: Swing-through -4% (n = 3).

Run the lead test What it measures

Study 5Pick-up map

Where in the field do shooters pick up a target late?

A target is picked up some tenths of a second after it appears, and where it appears relative to the look point decides how late. The test has the observer hold a look point above a cluttered horizon while a small target appears at one of five positions across and one of three heights, and press the instant they see it, with empty trials to measure guessing and a localisation check on every press; the viewing distance is measured by the blind-spot procedure, not just asked for. The result is a map of median latency by side and height, the asymmetries in it, and the look-point adjustment it suggests. The study asks what these maps look like across shooters, whether the slow side follows the dominant eye or the gun shoulder, and, later, whether a map predicts anything on the ground.

3
contributions, 2026-09-12 to 2026-09-21; 3 with the viewing distance verified
396.0 ms
median pick-up latency across people
33%
even across the field; 0% slower on one side, 67% at one height
+0.1 ms/°
median growth of latency per degree out from the middle

The pooled pick-up map

Each cell is the median across people of their median latency at that position; darker is later.

12° left6° leftmiddle6° right12° righthigh, clear skyhigh, -12°: 326 ms median across 2 people326 mshigh, -6°: 353 ms median across 3 people353 mshigh, 0°: 329 ms median across 3 people329 mshigh, 6°: 389 ms median across 3 people389 mshigh, 12°: 341 ms median across 2 people341 msmidmid, -12°: 367 ms median across 2 people367 msmid, -6°: 355 ms median across 3 people355 msmid, 0°: 460 ms median across 2 people460 msmid, 6°: 359 ms median across 3 people359 msmid, 12°: 360 ms median across 2 people360 mslow, in clutterlow, -12°: 540 ms median across 2 people540 mslow, -6°: 421 ms median across 3 people421 mslow, 0°: 421 ms median across 3 people421 mslow, 6°: 571 ms median across 3 people571 mslow, 12°: 418 ms median across 2 people418 msPosition across the field. Darker is later.12° left6° leftmiddle6° right12° righthigh, clear skyhigh, -12°: 326 ms median across 2 people326 mshigh, -6°: 353 ms median across 3 people353 mshigh, 0°: 329 ms median across 3 people329 mshigh, 6°: 389 ms median across 3 people389 mshigh, 12°: 341 ms median across 2 people341 msmidmid, -12°: 367 ms median across 2 people367 msmid, -6°: 355 ms median across 3 people355 msmid, 0°: 460 ms median across 2 people460 msmid, 6°: 359 ms median across 3 people359 msmid, 12°: 360 ms median across 2 people360 mslow, in clutterlow, -12°: 540 ms median across 2 people540 mslow, -6°: 421 ms median across 3 people421 mslow, 0°: 421 ms median across 3 people421 mslow, 6°: 571 ms median across 3 people571 mslow, 12°: 418 ms median across 2 people418 msPosition across the field. Darker is later.
A person counts as slower on a side or at a height when the difference in their own medians is 40 ms or more; absolute latencies carry a fixed display lag of a frame or two, comparisons between positions do not.

Run the pick-up test What it measures